Blank "EASE" Spreadsheet Explained

1. PURPOSE OF THESE NOTES

The following notes have been prepared for those who take their betting seriously and who wish to exercise total discretion and control over the match selections they intend to bet on, rather than simply rely on what we pick out for the "EASE 6" Selections posted each weekend.

The best way we know of ensuring that betting selections are as good as they can be is to thoroughly analyse the data from past predictions and use the findings to modify the output for any current predictions. To be able to do that effectively, you need a highly reliable PREDICTION & TRACKING SYSTEM.

Without such a valid System, it would be impossible to undertake any meaningful analysis of past predictions that could reliably assist you to draw worthwhile conclusions about a current set of predictions. Any attempt at modifying "unsystemised" predictions would be a complete waste of time, because there would be no basis of any sort against which such adjustments could be made.

Fortunately for our Clients, we employ a very worthwhile System that was specifically designed to enable meaningful analysis of its output. The heart of our System is a computer-driven database Program, written in a high-level database language.

2. WHAT KNOWLEDGE YOU NEED TO BRING WITH YOU

You already know that it isn't easy to beat the Bookies. And, ordinarily, you would have to be prepared to do a lot of research and comparison work of your own before selecting your bets. The problem is, many of our Clients who wish to make their own betting selections lack the time to do the pulling together of all the data that such decision-making requires.

But we have made the research and comparison work easy by providing you with a prediction analysis tool that is every bit as good as if our computer Program was sitting on your own computer!

The only difference is that we do all the donkey work involved in testing, running and collating the output from our Program, and we attach that output to a spreadsheet that makes it easy for you to check for yourself what fixtures would be the best ones to bet on!

What we do is to present you with a blank version of an "EASE 6" spreadsheet, which comes complete with our Program's backup data. To see the backup data for the 6 fixtures you are interested in, all you have to do is enter the names of the teams involved in the fixtures.

Now, we could try to tell you that you don't need maths or spreadsheet knowledge in order to understand precisely what our spreadsheet is doing, but that would be a complete lie. The spreadsheet is in fact quite complex. What is true, however, is that you don't actually have to UNDERSTAND the workings at all. Because the week-on-week successes of those workings prove that they work effectively!

Selecting your own "EASE 6" matches is a truly simple 'copy and paste' routine, without any fear of a mistake being made on your part in collating all the data for comparison purposes. And if you wish to conduct an in-depth analysis of each separate batch of 6 matches, the whole exercise should take you no more than 30 minutes or so for each set, compared to 6 hours or more if you were to properly compile all the essential backup data for yourself from scratch.

This is computing power and 'insider' knowledge for soccer betting purposes that you just can't get anywhere else on the planet! And it is so easy to use.

3. PURPOSE OF THE BLANK "EASE" SPREADSHEET

The BLANK "EASE" spreadsheet is designed for identifying those 6 matches offering the best chances of producing the predicted "Correct Scores" as well as the Win results.

We ourselves try to exclude "Outright Favourites" ("Very Short Odds" matches) as much as possible for use with the "EASE 6", because otherwise there is a tendency for the range of score-lines to increase considerably, making it less likely for us to be able to nail the score-line.

As an example, take the English Premier matches for 3 of the top ranked teams on 01 November 2008: Chelsea hammered Sunderland 5-0, and Manchester United beat Hull City 4-3. Now who could have predicted those ridiculous score-lines?

On the other hand, some of the Medium Odds "Home Win" calls we may go for might end up as Draws (this can happen when the number of solid winners appears more limited), and so we avoid betting Asian Handicap with those particular matches.

[Now, although we recommend that you read all the following portions to make sure you are 100% familiar with every aspect of our Selection Methodology and the decision-making tools we rely upon, some of you may be experienced enough with our product to be able to skip straight to Section 8 (Using the Blank "EASE" Spreadsheet) - in which case feel free to do so.]

4. OUR SELECTION METHODOLOGY

Our methodology for selecting which predictions to go for with the weekly-posted "EASE 6" is simple:

• We utilise the predictions made by our own in-house computerised prediction system, because we know it is competent and reliable (i.e. we apply its prediction routines 100% consistently from match-to-match and week-to-week).
• We then identify which matches have the highest combined values for the various HOME team and AWAY team Reliability Indicators (made possible because our Program tracks how the predictions go, week-on-week, across a variety of Reliability Indicators).
• Starting from the matches with the highest combined Reliability Indicators we then identify 6 matches where the past score-lines for the two teams involved in each match are the most consistent overall.

5. TOOLS FOR SELECTION AND DECISION MAKING

As part of our prediction and tracking System we produce a whole series of tables and other charts to accompany our special "Performance Indicator Chart" (PIC), and it therefore makes sense to use as much of that data as we possibly can. For example, amongst many other comparisons, we compare such things as "Goals For" and "Goals Against" for both teams, together with how many wins and losses we predicted compared to what actually happened. And then we compare that data with the "EASE 6" spreadsheet's "Projected Score-Line".

When we first started doing this, the problem was that the amount of data we had to extract from the PIC's was absolutely colossal! So in a week where there were over 120 prime matches at the weekend, it would have taken us at least 40 hours to compile and review the details for each and every match, after which we would then still have needed to make selections and process all the data for posting the "EASE 6" spreadsheet on our website.

It was killing us, especially on those occasions where the Odds for some of the weekend matches did not become available until late on Friday evening.

And then, one by one, our Clients started writing in to ask how they could quickly make use of the "EASE 6" spreadsheet to do the same thing for those particular matches they were interested in (and not the 6 matches we had selected), because, just like us, they found that manually trying to pick up all the necessary data and transfer it to the spreadsheet was such a laborious process. Our first reaction was "Tell us about it!"

But we eventually got to thinking about whether or not we could in fact put in the effort to come up with a way where we could give the Clients what they were asking for and at the same time ease our own workload - the good old "What's In It For Me" approach!

First we had to devise a way to get the backup data out from the inside of our computer and into an easy-to-use spreadsheet format for every single match to be played in the current week. And we did that successfully.

Then we had to concoct a way to make sure that, simply by inserting the names of the two teams involved in a fixture, our Clients would immediately be able to see the data for any matches they were interested in without much further effort. And we did that successfully too, utilising Excel's vertical and horizontal "Look-Up" functions (but if you don't know what that means please don't worry about it, because it all happens in the background).

But before we tell you precisely how to utilise the 'blank' spreadsheet for your preferred match choices (and without any fear of screwing up all the formulae and links), we first we need to explain what the Projected Score-Line backup data (Cells Q70:R75 on the "Match Selections" worksheet of the posted "EASE 6" spreadsheet) represents (i.e. how we compile it and what its relevance is as far as you are concerned):

1. We make predictions of the goals both "for" and "against" each team for each and every match. To make those predictions we use a suite of interconnected algorithms that have been tried, tested and modified for improvement over the course of the past 10 years or so, and which are very good for doing the job they were specifically designed to do.
2. Now, although from season-to-season our Program only averages a Correct Scores hit rate of about 10-12% (across ALL Correct Scores Calls - from Home Wins, Away Wins and Draws), for many of the teams our score-line predictions get very close to the mark. Of course, with some of the more erratic teams our Program's calls are nowhere near as close.
3. What the Projected Score-Line calculations on our EASE spreadsheets do is take our Program's original Anticipated Score-Line (ASL) and re-work it to compensate for where the Program has not been getting it "quite right". This would normally be due to a team producing a number of score-lines that are somewhat inconsistent with its "averaged" score-lines.
4. Of course, the worst case of inconsistency is where a team loses when it should win and wins when it is expected to lose; and there are far too many teams that fall into that mould! However, our manual selection process is designed to completely eliminate all such offenders from our final selections list!
5. So the minor inconsistency we deal with in connection with the re-workings for our "EASE 6" selections is only in respect of the number of goals scored, because we try to select only those matches where the past results for the teams (including actual score-lines) were pretty much in line with our Program's original expectations.
6. The primary purpose of going through the "projection" exercise is therefore to see if we can find matches where the Projected Score-Line is exactly the same as the original Anticipated Score-Line. Where it is, we will have much more confidence in the original Anticipated Score-Line than where there is a marked disparity between the two score-lines, not least because the projection exercise takes into account the comparative performance of BOTH teams in the match, not just one of them.

Bear in mind that at the beginning of the season we could get some pretty wild adjustments if we took the data for just the first few weeks' matches and tried to adjust the score-lines based on that data alone. So what we do until a team has played 10 matches at a Home or Away venue is to make adjustments based on our predictions versus the actual results for the last few matches played in the previous season plus the results to date in the current season, looking at the data for just 10 matches overall.

So, as soon as a team has played 10 matches for, say, a Home venue, then last season's prediction performance is no longer used, and our Program concentrates only on what has happened in the current season. We therefore expect that from slightly before the half-way mark in a season our "EASE 6" Primary Calls will do considerably better than at the start of the season. For more background details on this you can refer to our section "PIC Compilation".

The above has filled you in on how our Program gets to its our 'base score-line prediction' (the ASL) and how the "EASE 6" spreadsheet is designed to project those base predictions on the basis of how near to or how far away from the actual results our Program's previous Anticipated Score-Line predictions have proved to be.

Of course, if you still want to bet on the Correct Scores of matches for your own selections where the Projected Score-Line does not match the original Anticipated Score-Line, then you will need to put a lot of extra thought into working out for yourself what the most likely score-line for the match could be. But we offer some guidelines on that below.

6. DETERMINING THE MOST LIKELY SCORE-LINE

To assist our Clients to determine the most likely score-line for a match, we have produced relevant tables that can be accessed through our website by clicking on the link under the Date/Time column alongside where the match fixtures are displayed. There are basically two different sets of data, which are impossible to display in a linear spreadsheet format because they are matrices:

1. the "Frequency of Goals For/Against" (tables showing the actual scores for and against the teams, presented in a score-line format, as well as an alternative table format showing the number of times a certain number of goals has been scored for and against the teams - with separate tables available for the current season and the previous season); and
2. a table titled the "Chances of Exact Score Possibilities For This Match" (which shows, for the original Anticipated Score-Line for the fixture in question, where the 36 score-lines from 0-0 to 5-5 fall (as a percentage), and which also identifies the 4 most common score-lines that occur for the ASL in question).

Bear in mind that the incidence of occurrence for the score-line data is compiled by analysing where our Program's predictions actually fall "on average", based on whether the chances of a win for the team perceived to be the strongest are short, medium or long. So what then needs to be decided is whether the match being looked at falls into the "average" category or ought to be considered as an exception to the general rule.

As a guide, if both the Program's original Anticipated Score-Line and the Projected Score-Line on the "EASE 6" spreadsheet show a 1-0 win for the match, and the Home Team has won 1-0 and the Away team lost 0-1 more often than any other score-line both in the past season and up-to-date in the current season, then you can have a great deal of confidence in the final score falling in line with the average "fall-out" of score-lines for a 1-0 call (as seen in the "Chances of Exact Score Possibilities For This Match" table).

Of course, it will never be that easy!

So what you have to do is look at a few other things, such as the likelihood of there being 'Under' or 'Over' 2.5 goals for the match. And for that purpose we have included the stats in respect of that data on the worksheet titled "Analysis".

7. CORRECT SCORES ALTERNATIVE (HEDGE BETTING) LINES

Having decided what you think is the most likely score-line for the match, you then need to ask yourself what the most likely alternative score-lines could be.

With our posted "EASE 6" predictions, the Correct Scores Hedge Betting info will let you know which matches we ourselves feel may even go the other way from our "EASE" Primary Calls, so it would be best to avoid betting on Outright Wins for a match where we have indicated that a Draw is also a distinct possibility or even that the team perceived to be weakest may in fact win!

A good example of the sort of "warning" we give was the Tottenham Hotspurs v Liverpool match on 01 November 2008, where Liverpool were the favourite to win, where we did not expect a Draw but we thought there was a reasonable chance of Spurs winning 2-1 (which it did), so we put that score-line in as our 3rd Hedge Betting line at Odds of 13.00, and it came through for us! The Bookies really didn't expect that one!

8. USING THE BLANK "EASE" SPREADSHEET

Now you know what it is the posted "EASE 6" spreadsheet is designed for, let's suppose you want to ignore our selections and choose your own alternative 6 matches, but still be able to analyse all the previous prediction data to see how the teams you wish to bet on stack up.

Here's what you have to do on the "Match Selections" worksheet of the BLANK "EASE" Spreadsheet to insert your 6 preferred matches and see all the data instantly appear relevant to those 6 matches and then properly analyse the resultant output for yourself:

1. In Cells D16:D21, copy in the fixture details found in Column B of the "BaseData" worksheet for the matches you prefer (this will ensure that the automatic "look-up" facilities will work 100% properly).
2. Now go through Cells O52:AD57, F70:J75, O70:R75, G88:N93, T88:Z93 and F100:Y111 to check out the "Reliabilities" and other data, and highlight any Oddballs you find. And if you think the Oddballs are too many or too onerous, consider replacing the offending fixtures with alternative and more "compliant" matches.
3. Compare the Originally Posted ASL with the Projected Calls (Cells AA100:AB110 versus those in Cells AC100:AD110) to ensure there is similarity (and if not, consider replacing those fixtures where the anticipated 1X2 RESULTS for the 2 separate match predictions (Original v Projected) are different).
4. Check the "Analysis" worksheet to see if the Under/Over data reflects the anticipated outcomes for both the Originally Posted ASL and the Projected Score-Lines (and if not, consider replacing any non-conforming fixture until you find a conforming one).
5. If, having completed steps (c) and (d) above, you still decide to keep the Oddballs on board, we recommend that you highlight them accordingly, just as we would do if we were offering a posted "EASE 6" spreadsheet for your consumption.
6. Once you are fully happy that the fixtures you have selected are the ones you want to do Correct Scores 'Hedge Betting' with, you are ready to decide on the PRIMARY Score-Line to go for. Those score-lines should be inserted into Cells AE100:AF110 (a single digit only is needed).
7. Don't forget that to assist you to decide upon the most likely score-line, no matter that the Originally Posted ASL and the Projected Score-Line are identical to each other, you should refer to the tables referred to in the first paragraph of Section 6 above.

   [Click on the Date/Time link adjacent to the fixture you are interested in, then scroll down on the PIC (Performance Indicator Chart) associated data screen to the "Frequency of Goals For/Against" table to review the actual scores history for the current season to date as well as the past season (at the very bottom of the screen).]

8. (h) One final check you should also make, before convincing yourself too quickly about what the outcome of the match will most likely be, is to re-check where the two teams stand comparatively in the League Division table, both overall and for the respective Home/Away plays (the relevant charts are also found on the PIC screen).
9. Remember, once the season is well under way you wouldn't normally expect a team playing Away, and which loses more Aways than it wins, to beat a team playing at Home that just happens to be 4 positions higher in the 'Overall' table and wins far more games at Home than it loses. If you did, at that point you would be defying the Law of Averages. But a Draw could well be on the cards. However, for such number comparisons to be truly meaningful you need "volume" or "weight" of numbers to be there, thus early season indicators may not give a true picture. So be very careful how much credence you give to the current table rankings early on in the season.
10. Having settled on the PRIMARY Score-Line, now decide on the 3 Hedge Betting Score-Lines to go into Cells U16:W21. Note that in these Cells the entry must be made in the format '1-0 (for example); both the leading apostrophe and the hyphen are essential.
11. Next, highlight any Oddballs you find in Cells H16:M21 and X16:Z21.
12. If you wish to do so, insert the details of your Asian Handicap selections into Cells B52:D57, based on what you believe will be the most likely score-line for each match, then highlight the Oddballs in Cells E52:F57 (although we don't recommend you doing Asian Handicap betting where any Outright Win Call offers Medium Odds).

If you enter all the 24 score-lines correctly (6 matches x 4 alternative score-lines), then the Odds are automatically pulled up and the entries for Cells H16:M21 and X16:Z21 will be automatically completed in their entirety (you don't have to do anything in those Cells, as the List_Odds and BaseData worksheets will 'give up' the required data as you finalise each entry).

Don't try to save time by ignoring the automatic "ODDBALL" and other highlighting suggestions that appears on the spreadsheet, because going through that step can often draw your attention to very important issues you would otherwise never have spotted. You will need only that one time pass through to convince yourself of its usefulness! It's quite an amazing experience, believe us!

When you have completed all the above steps you will then have your very own unique "EASE 6" spreadsheet for your 6 personally selected matches, complete with all the backup data relevant to those matches!

You can unprotect each worksheet within the spreadsheet using the password "Woz", but you shouldn't need to do so unless you want to add other info of your own to a sheet. If in doing so you accidentally delete a FORMULA, then you will either have to be knowledgeable enough to know how to repair the damage or you must start again from the original file held on the website (and which wouldn't be at all difficult, needing 10 minutes work at most).

If the above has not convinced you that we take your soccer betting success every bit as seriously as you do, then nothing else we can possibly say ever will!